Meeting measures of the Serbian government an overview of global economic measures: IMF funds and instructions, EU measures. What is Iran scenario? How did the European powers stand, and how did the neighboring countries? Where is Serbia’s place in all this?
The COVID-19 virus has invaded almost the entire world, affecting both, countries with strong economies and weaker ones. The global economy expects losses in the coming period, with the first visible negative effects in the next three months, when it is expected that countries will use their resources from pandemic suppression to the fight for the economic recovery.
Many countries have already adopted economic measures, and International funds have been set up to combat the spread of viruses as emergency funds. Measures that are currently in place have highest focus on protection the most vulnerable sectors of the industry, such as the hospitality industry, air transport and other directly affected industries, which can lead to a big losses in the coming period. Also, masures like delaying fiscal&tax obligations and stimulating employers to maintain current number of employees are ubiquitous among strong economies. There are also more aggressive measures to preserve economy growth with “whatever it takes” policy, and reserving enormous resources.
As for Republic of Serbia, in order to take economic measures to prevent the consequences of COVID-19, certain measures have already been enacted – the moratorium on repayment of the loan provided by the NBS and tax relief for debtors in enforced collection. All informations about these measures can be found on our blog.
Now, The Republic of Serbia is expected to bring concrete measures for the preservation and reconstruction of the economy in the coming period, which will surely be disturbed by the projected loss of GDP (unofficially 2%). This percentage of GDP loss is common to economies equivalent to Serbian, so with a decimal refinement after three months we can expect a final figure. However, we can already see how the measures are taken by individual countries and being implemented. Some countries are taken preventive measures, and other ones due to already significant economic consequences. We can alsosee how the global economy is affected by stagnation of production of goods and provision of services, and what international funds are available to countries under what conditions.
EUROPEAN UNION (ESM, EIB)
The Commission will release an estimate of the economic loss in May, but Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton predicted a 2-2.5 percent recession, calling for „economic war“.
Several EU countries have closed borders and large supply chains have been affected, and kilometer lines for entering are created, so the EU Executive has suggested that borders remain open to goods within the EU.
All branches of the economy are endangered by COVID-19, with tourism, hospitality and air traffic being the most vulnerable. The EU Civil Aviation Center has warned that international airlines will fall apart by May, leaving hundreds of thousands of people jobless.
The EU is anticipating a major “coronavirus” crisis, which is inevitably a global effort. The Eurozone finance ministers have encumber the € 410 billion European Stability Mechanism (ESM established after the financial crisis of 2008-09), to consider ways to tackle the economic downfall of COVID-19. Fiscal measures consist of public guarantee schemes and deferred tax payments. Ministers also supported the Commission and the European Investment Bank’s proposal to mobilize up to EUR 8 billion in a capital loan for 100,000 European firms.
The European Investment Bank (EIB) will mobilize up to EUR 40 billion to fight COVID-19 and called on EU governments to establish a further guarantee for SMEs.
IMF (50 Billion Emergency Fund, RCF, RFI, Instruction)
The IMF proposes coordinated actions such as those needed to prevent the 2008-2009 global economic crisis. In 2009 alone, the G20 stimulated about 2 percent of its GDPs. The IMF Emergency Fund now provide $ 50 billion.
The IMF has two instruments for emergency financing. The Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) established in 2009 and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) established in 2011. RCF financing is available to low-income countries, so it has a zero interest rate and a grace period of 5.5 years (example: last year Mozambique applied after the cyclone Idai and used this fund, also and Guinea and Liberia used it in 2014-15 to prevent the Ebola outbreak). RFI is aimed for developing economies (example: Ecuador activated the RFI platform in 2016 after one of the strongest earthquakes in the country’s history).
The $ 50 billion IMF’s Emergency Fund to prevent COVID-19 can be applied through both the RCF and RFI programs. Countries that already using one of these platforms can expand the application under pre-existing conditions. The fund is divided, so $ 10 billion is provided for low-income countries, and $ 40 billion for markets in developing. Markets with abundant reserves and those with existing IMF precautionary measures (such as Mexico) are excluded. Also excluded are those who have arrears to the IMF or the World Bank, or in which the IMF has judged the debt balance is unsustainable to access the fund. The total number of countries that can access this fund is 130.
The IMF’s instructions are contained in three key points and include the following:
1. To spend money on preventing, detecting, controlling and treating people and to make it possible for businesses to operate under quarantine:
- Provide timely, targeted and temporary cash flow for most affected,
- Employee wage subsidies
- Extend and expand deadlines and cash transfers,
2. Tax benefits,
3. Develop a business continuity plan.
GERMANY
Although German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz believed that the activation of the aforementioned ESM was coming too soon (source: Handelsblatt), it was inevitable that due to the impact of the entire European economy, part of these or other funds would be activated. Indeed, not long after, Germany secures huge funds through their Stabilization Fund, amounting to as much as EUR 600 billion, and then, promising unlimited loans on favorable terms. Germany is even ready to take over key companies and put them under state control to prevent their bancrupcy, if needed, and privatize them after the crisis. Measures to preserve the number of employees are subsidies of 2/3 wages.
DANISH MEASURE
An example of a strong country with a stable economy is certainly Denmark. Their solution is this: the state guarantees to private companies that they will cover 75% of their salaries at a certain maximum, provided that the number of employees is not reduced. The three-month aid period is scheduled to run until June 9, with the state offering a 75% wage payment to employees up to a maximum of 23,000 Danish kroner ($ 3,418) a month, with companies paying the remaining 25%. Employees will be required to take 5 days of mandatory leave.
PRC
The emergence of COVID-19 in the PRC has caused it to record its first contraction in economic growth since 1976, in the first quarter of this year. So, even during the global economic crisis, China did not record a recession. Industrial production in February decreased by 13.5% compared to February last year.
China is the second largest economic power with a GDP growth of 6.6% (last year’s 6.1%), and the current forecast for the first quarter alone is down to 5%, in some opinions perhaps below that.
For the time being, PR China has introduced measures to mitigate the tax burden for companies in vulnerable areas, most notably tourism and catering. China offers VAT deferrals for companies with no money, and it also introduces a temporary suspension of social security contributions. These measures address vulnerable areas and it should be borne in mind that most of the factories are back in operation and that significant further losses should not be expected. However, full recovery also depends on the rest of the world, as Chinese industry is also dependent on imported oil and mining raw materials.
IRAN SCENARIO
With early estimates, Iran is projecting a 3% drop in GDP, so the government announced a series of measures to support vulnerable social classes and businesses. Iran is most negatively affected by the global collapse of oil price and the closure of neighboring countries, which makes it difficult to export this raw material.
Tehran, as the focal point of COVID-19, decided to apply for the IMF fund for the first time since the Islamic Revolution since 1979. Venezuela did the same. Both states were seeking $ 5 billion.
Tehran was unlikely to receive assistance, in addition to Washington’s veto and the IMF’s general terms, so Iran is one of the countries whose application was rejected. The same IMF decision was met by Venezuela, which was rejected because of the small number of people infected with the virus, and another, much bigger problem – unclear recognition of goverment legitimity by world community.
Although rejected by the IMF, Iran did receive EU assistance, but the allocation of funds are primarily invested in large state and semi-state firms, as the Government is the largest economic factor in the country (instead of the regulatory sector of the economy).
For this reason, new levels of solidarity have been launched. For example, the NAFAS (Breath) campaign – a coalition of non-governmental organizations, businesses and chambers of commerce – facilitated the production, import and export of goods, but also built a specialized clinic for the treatment of patients. Then, FARA BOURSE, the Tehran Stock Exchange, introduced crowdfunding to mobilize resources to combat COVID-19.
The Central Bank of Iran has directed commercial banks to provide low-interest loans, dividing the 10 business categories most affected by COVID-19.
Iran’s Social Agenda also provides for an interest-free loan of about $ 474 for workers who have been fired and are a vulnerable group. The payback period is 30 months and is estimated to be used by about 4 million citizens.
Current circumstances are forcing accelerated digitization, and this is not only in the case of Iran, but of all countries that are delaying digitization. Working on e-government, e-learning and e-business is on speed track.
It should also be mentioned that Iran has survived a devastating war in recent history and has subsequently succeeded in reconstructing itself from its own resources, primarily through oil.
an EXAMPLE for SERBIA – CROATIA
The Croatian Parliament has approved a government package of € 3.9 billion to help the economy. This Package contains 63 measures that focus on the payroll of employees in the most affected sectors, as well as job retention. Entrepreneurs and citizens affected by COVID-19 are anticipated to defer payment of public duties, such as variety of incomes and taxes, as well as contributions. All this ayments are deferred for three months, with the possibility of extension to three more (after which these debts will be repaid in installments, without interest and with a term of 24 months).
Croatia will try to keep jobs with subsidies up to legal wage minimum, and help any employee who would lose their job. On the other hand, Croatia suspends measures for new employees as well as incentives for self-employment so that these funds will be directed towards maintaining the current number of employees.
SERBIA nex steps
The Serbian economy is not affected like Chinesse, but it will not recover as quickly as China. Italy and France are already making large sums of money to recover their economies, above all tourism ( note that France is the second most visited country in the world, and that Italy is not far behind). Iran will certainly suffer huge losses, and the effect will be seen only after oil price is established, since Iran is a country with 10% of the world’s oil reserves. Germany has raised the most funds, not counting the US that will have to exceed German measures. The IMF has prepared emergenc fund, and just waiting for countries to borrow … Where is Serbia in all this?
If the virus continues to progress globally and slow global economic growth, it is very likely that many countries will seek funding from IMF. However, for now, it can be expected that Serbia will take measures that can be foreseen within a period of up to 3 months from its own funds. The most appropriate scenario for the Serbian measures will be the Croatian Economic Measures, regarding the number of infected, the strength of the economies and the virus incubation and takeing under control period. Tax relief for contributions, income, profits and possibly VAT should be expected. Salaries like those in Denmark and Germany cannot be compensated by the Serbian budget without the activation of international assistance.
Government measures that can be expected, are primarily to preserve jobs and stimulate employers. The state should come up with a fiscal plan of interest-free deferred taxation for at least 3 months, releasing contributions and possibly covering part of the earnings of certain sectors, depending on the budgetary disposition and all employees who are also indirectly threatened by the impact of COVID. The idea of abolishing self-employment incentives is a double-edged sword, and unless budgetary resources are at a minimum, these measures should not be resorted to.
COVID-19: MERE ZA SPREČAVANJE EKONOMSKOG KOLAPSA
U susret merama vlade RS, pregled globalnih ekonomskih mera: MMF fondovi i instrukcije, mere EU. Šta je Iranski scenario? Kako su se postavile evropske sile, kako susedne države? Gde je Srbija u svemu tome?
Virus COVID-19 je zahvatio gotovo čitav svet, i ekonomske sile i one koji to nisu. Svetska globalna ekonomija očekuje gubitke u narednom periodu sa prvim vidljivim negativnim efektima u narednom periodu od tri meseca, kada se očekuje da će države usmeriti svoja sredstva sa fokusa suzbijanja pandemije na borbu za ekonomski oporavak zemlje.
Mnoge države su već sada donele ekonomske mere, a na globalnom nivou su oformljeni fondovi za suzbijanje širenja i posledica virusa kao hitni fondovi za vanredne situacije. Od ekonomskih mera koje su trenutno aktuelne, najviši je fokus na zaštiti najugroženijih grana industrije kao što su turizam, ugostiteljstvo, avio saobraćaj i ostale direktno pogođene grane u kojima može doći do velikog broja nezaposlednih u naredom periodu. Pred toga, države pribegavaju odlaganju fiskalnih obaveza prema državi i stimulisanju poslodavaca u održavanju broja zaposlenih u privatnom sektoru. Postoje i agresivnije mere za očuvanje najjačih ekonomija po principu „whatever it takes“ za koje su predviđena ogromna sredstva.
Šte se tiče Republike Srbije, u cilju preduzimanja ekonomskih mera za sprečavanje posledica COVID-19, već su donete određene mere o kojima smo pisali – moratorijumu na otplatu kredita koji je omogućila NBS i poreske olakšice za dužnike u prinudnoj naplati.
Od Republike Srbije se očekuje da u narednom periodu donese konkretne mere za očuvanje ali i rekonostrukciju ekonomije koja će sigurno biti urušena usled projekcije gubitka BDP, za sada nezvanično 2%. Ovaj procenat gubitka BDP uobičajen je za ekonomije ekvivalentne domaćoj, pa uz decimalno preciziranje nakon tri meseca možemo očekivati i finalnu cifru. Međutim, već sada možemo sagledati kako izgledaju mere koje su preduzele pojedine države, što preventivno, što zbog već osetnih ekonomskih posledica, ali i kako na globalnu ekonomiju utiče stagnacija proizvodnje dobara i pružanje usluga te koji su međunarodni fondovi na raspolaganju državama i koje mere su predvideli ti fondovi koji su u ovu svrhu namenjeni, pa u svetlu svega toga pronaći mesto domaćoj ekonomiji.
EVROPSKA UNIJA (ESM, EIB)
Procenu ekonomskog gubitka će Komisija saopštiti u maju, ali komesar za industriju Thiery Breton je predvideo recesiju od 2-2,5 procenata, te nazvao ove mere svojevrsnim ekonomskim ratom.
Nekoliko zemalja EU je zatvorilo granice a time su pogođeni veliki lanci snabdevanja, pa je Izvršna vlast EU predložila da granice ostanu otvorene za robu unutar EU, tako da su počele da se stvaraju i kilometarske kolone.
Sve grane privrede su ugrožene zbog COVID-19, a kao najugroženije izdvajaju se turizam, ugostiteljstvo i vazdušni saobraćaj. Centar za vazduhoplovstvo EU, upozorio je da će međunarodne avio kompanije do maja raspasti, što će stotine hiljada ljudi ostati bez posla.
EU predviđa veliku „koronavirusnu“ krizu, što itekako zahteva globalne napore. Ministri finansija Eurozone zadužili su Blok za pomoć – Evropski mehanizam za stabilnost (ESM, European Stability Mechanism) koji je vredan 410 milijardi EUR i koji je uspostavljen nakon finansijske krize 2008-2009. godine, kako bi razmotrili načine za rešavanje ekonomske propasti COVID-19. Fiskalne mere se sastoje od šema javnih garancija i odloženih plaćanja poreza. Ministri su podržali i predlog Komisije i Evropske investicione banke za mobilizaciju do 8 milijardi EUR zajma kapitala za 100.000 evropskih firmi.
Evropska investiciona banka (European Investment bank – EIB ) mobiliziraće do 40 milijardi EUR za borbu protiv COVID -19 i pozvala je vlade EU da uspostave dalju garanciju za mala i srednja preduzeća.
MMF (50 milijardi, RCF, RFI, instrukcije)
MMF predlaže koordinisane akcije poput onih koje su bile potrebne za sprečavanje svetske ekonoske krize 2008-2009. godine, kada su, setimo se samo u 2009. godini zemlje G20 stimulisale oko 2 procenta svog BDP. Fond za finansiranje vanrednih situacija MMF-a sada predviđa 50 milijardi USD.
MMF ima dva instrumenta za finansiranje vanrednih situacija. Rapid credit facility (RCF) koji je osnovan 2009. i Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) osnovan 2011. Finansiranje u okviru RCF dostupno je zemljama sa niskim prihodima, zato ima nultu kamatnu stopu i grejs period od 5,5 godina ( primer: prošle godine je Mozambik nakon ciklona Idaja koristio ovaj fond a Gvineja i Liberija su 2014-15 koristili su za sprečavanje epidemije ebole). RFI namenjen tržištima u razvoju (primer: Ekvador je 2016. godine posle jednog od najjačih zemljotresa u istoriji te zemlje aktivirao RFI platformu za obnovu ekonomije zemlje).
Ono što je specifično za ovaj Fond od 50 milijardi USD za vanrednu pomoć u sprečavanju COVID-19 jeste to što je moguće aplicirati i kroz RCF i RFI program. Zemlje koje već koriste neku od ovih platformi mogu pod već postojećim uslovima da prošire aplikaciju. Fond je podeljen tako da je za zemlje sa mailm primanjima obezbeđeno 10 miijardi USD, a za ostala tržišta kao i za tržišta u razvoju preostalih 40 milijardi USD. Isključena su ona tržišta koja imaju obilne rezerve kao i ona koja imaju postojeće mere predostrožnosti MMF-a (kao što je Meksiko). Isključeni su i koji imaju zaostala dugovanja prema MMF-u ili Svetskoj banci ili u kojima je MMF procenio da je stanje duga neodrživo za pristup fondu.
Ukupan broj zemalja koje mogu pristupiti ovom fondu je 130.
Instrukcije MMF-a su sadržane u tri ključne tačke i podrazumevaju sledeće:
1. Potrošiti novac za sprečavanje,otkrivanje, kontrolu i lečenje ljudi i omogućiti pružanje usuga preduzeća koji moraju da rade pod karantinom:
- Obezbediti pravovremene, ciljane i privremene olakšice u gotovinskom toku ljudima i firmama koje su najviše pogođeni,
- Subvencije za zarade ugroženih,
- Proširiti i produžiti rokove i novčane transfere najugroženijima,
2. Poreske olakšice,
3. Napraviti plan kontinuiteta poslovanja.
NEMAČKA
Iako je Nemački ministar finansija Olaf Scholz smatrao da aktiviranje gore pomenutog ESM-a dolazi prerano (izvor: Handelsblatt), neminovno je bilo je da će usled pogođenosti celokupne Evropske ekonomije deo ovih sredstava ili sredstva iz drugih fondova biti aktivirani. I zaista, nedugo zatim, Nemačka obezbeđuje ogromna sredstva kroz Fond za stabilizaciju koji iznosi čak 600 milijardi EUR, a zatim, obećava neograničene kredite pod povoljnim uslovima. Nemačka je čak spremna da preuzme kljčne kompanije pod kontrolu države da bi ih sapsila propadanja, a nakon krize bi ih ponovo privatizovala. Predviđene su i mere za očuvanje broja zaposlenih, i isplate do 2/3 zarade od strane države.
DANSKA MERA
Primer jake države sa stabilnom ekonomijom je svakako i Danska. Njihovo rešenje je sledeće: država garantuje privatnim kompanijama da će pokriti 75% plata uz određeni maksimum, pod uslovom da se ne smanji broj zaposlenih. Predviđen je tromesečni period pomoći koji će trajati do 9. juna, država nudi isplatu 75% zarada zaposlenih do maksimalno 23.000 danskih kruna (3.418 USD) mesečno, dok kompanije plaćaju preostalih 25%. Zaposleni će biti u obavezi da iskoriste 5 dana obaveznog odmora.
KINA
Pojava COVID-19 na teritoriji NR Kine je izazvala da u prvom kvartalu ove godine zabeleži prvu kontrakciju ekonomskog rasta još od 1976 godine. Dakle, čak ni za vreme svetske ekonosmke krize Kina nije zabeležila recesiju. Industrijska proizvodnja u februaru je opala za 13,5 % u odnosu na februar prošle godine.
Kina je druga najveća ekonoska sila sa rastom BDP od 6,6% (prošlogodišnjim 6,1%), a sadašnja predviđanja za samo prvi kvartal ove godine je pad na 5%, po nekim mišljenjima možda i nešto ispod toga.
NR Kina je za sada uvela mere ublažavanja poreskog opterećenja za kompanije u ugroženim područjima, a pre svega za turizam, ugostiteljstvo i prevoz. Kina nudi odlaganje PDV-a za kompanije koje nemaju novca, a pored toga uvodi i privremenu obustavu doprinosa za socijalno osiguranje. Ove mere se odnose na ugrožena područja i treba imati u vidu da je većina fabrika ponovo u pogonu te da značajne dalje gubitke ne bi trebalo očekivati. Međutim potpuni oporavak zavisi i od ostatka sveta, jer kineska industrija zavisi i od uvozne nafte i rudarskih sirovina.
IRANSKI SCENARIO
Uz rane procene Iran predviđa pad 3% BDP, pa je vlada najavila niz mera za podršku ugroženim socijalnim klasama i preduzećima. Na Iran najviše negativno utiče globalni kolaps cene nafte i zatvaranje granica susednih država, što otežava izvoz ove sirovine.
Teheran kao žarište COVID-19, odlučio je da aplicira za fond MMF-a i to prvi put nakon Islamske revolucije još od 1979. godine. Isto je učinila i Venecuela. Obe države su tražile 5 milijardi USD.
Male su bile verovatnoće da će Teheran primiti pomoć, pored veta Vašingtona i generalnih uslova MMF-a, pa je Iran jedna od zemalja čija je aplikacija odbijena. Istu odluku MMF-a dočekala je i Venecuela koja je odbijena zbog malog broja ljudi zaraženih virusom, i drugog, mnogo većeg problema – legitimiteta vlade od strane svetske zajednice.
Iako odbijen od strane MMF-a, Iran jeste dobio pomoć od EU, ali raspodela sredstava od strane Vlade kao najvećeg ekonomskog činioca u zemlji (umesto regulatornog sektora ekonomije), za ovu državu znači prvenstveno ulaganje sredstava u velike državne i poludržavne firme.
Iz tog razloga, pokrenuli su se novi nivoi solidarnosti. Npr. kampanja “NAFAS” (dah) – koalicija nevladinih organizacija, preduzeća i privrednih komora –olakšala je proizvodnju, uvoz i izvoz dobara, ali i izgradila specijalizovanu kliniku za lečenje obolelih. Zatim, „FARA BOURSE“, berza hartija od vrednosti u Teheranu, uvela je „crowdfunding“ kako bi mobilizovala resurse za borbu protiv COVID-19.
Centralna banka Irana, uputila je komercijalne banke da daju zajmove sa niskim kamatama, pri čemu je napravila podelu na 10 poslovnih kategorija najviše pogođenih COVID-19.
Socijalni program Irana predviđa i bezkamatni zajam od oko 474 USD za radnike koji su dobili otkaz a predstavljaju ugroženu grupu. Rok za vraćanje je 30 meseci a predviđa se da će ga koristiti oko 4 miliona građana.
Trenutne okolnosti forsiraju na ubrzanu digitalizaciju i ovo nije samo u slučaju Irana, već svih zemalja koje kaskaju sa digitalizacijom. Brzinski se radi na e-upravi, e-učenju i e-poslovanju.
Treba pomenuti i to da je Iran preživeo razorni rat u novijoj istoriji i da je nakon toga uspeo da se rekonstruiše najviše iz sopstvenih resursa, pre svega zahvaljujući nafti.
HRVATSKI ARŠIN ZA SRBIJU
Hrvatska skupština je odobrila paket vlade od 3,9 milijardi EUR za pomoć privredi. Ovaj Paket je sadržan od 63 mere koje su fokusirane na isplate zarada zaposlenih najpre pogođenih sektora kao i na zadržavanje radnih mesta. Predviđa se preduzetnicima i građanima pogođenim COVID-19 odlaganje plaćanja javnih dažbina, poput poreza na dohodak i na dobit, kao i doprinosa. Plaćanja se odložu na tri meseca, uz mogućnost produženja na još tri (nakon čega će se otplata tih dugova vršiti na rate i to bez kamata sa rokom od 24 meseca).
Što se tiče radnih mesta,država će pokušati da zadrži radna mesta sa isplatom u visini minimalne zarade, te pomoći svakog zaposlenog koji bi ostao bez posla. Sa druge strane Hrvatska suspenduje mere za novozaposlene kao i podsticaj za samozapošljavanje tako da će ta sredstva usmeriti na očuvanje sadašnjeg broja zaposlenih.
SRBIJA – sledeći koraci
Srpska ekonomija nije pogođena kao Kineska, ali se neće ni oporaviti brzo poput Kineske. Italija i Francuska već preduzimaju velika novčana sredstva za oporavak svojih ekonomija, pre svega turizma, treba imati u vidu da je Francuska druga najposećenija zemlja na svetu, te da ni Italija ne zaostaje mnogo. Iran će svakako pretrpeti ogromne gubitke čiji će se efekat videti tek nakon uspostavljanja jasnog kursa cene nafte, budući da je Iran zemlja koja ima 10% zaliha celokupne svetske nafte. Nemačka je izvdojila najviše sredstava, ne računajući SAD koje će morati da premaše Nemačke mere. MMF je spremio novac i čeka države da se zaduže… Gde je Srbija u svemu tome?
Ukoliko virus i dalje bude progresirao na globalnom nivou i usporavao svetski ekonomski rast, vrlo verovatno će mnoge zemlje poseći za finansiranjem od strane međunarodnih fondova. Međutim za sada može se očekivati da će Srbija preduzeti mere koje se mogu predvideti u periodu do 3 meseca i to iz sopstvenih fondova. Najpribližniji scenario donošenja mera vlade Srbije će biti Hrvatskim ekonomskim merama, uzimajući u obzir broj zaraženih, snage ekonomija i perioda u kojem se predviđa da će virus biti stavljen pod kontrolu. Trebalo bi očekivati poreske olakšice za doprinose, dohodak, dobit i eventualno PDV. Nadoknadu zarada poput onih u Danskoj i Nemačkoj srpski budžet ne može priuštiti bez aktivacije međunarodne pomoći.
Po svemu sudeći za sada se mogu očekivati mere vlade koje će pre svega ići u pravcu očuvanja radnih mesta i stimulisanja poslodavaca i tom pravcu. Država bi trebala da izađe sa fiskalnim planom beskamatnog odloženog oporezivanja na period od najmanje 3 meseca, oslobađanjem doprinosa i eventualnim pokrićem dela zarada određenih sektora, a u zavisnosti od budžetskog raspolaganja i svih zaposlenih koji su i indirektno ugorženi uticajem COVID-19. Ideja ukidanja stimulansa za samozapošljavanje je mač sa dve oštrice, i ukoliko budžetska sredstva nisu na minimumu, za ovim merama ne bi trebalo posezati.
Tekst je pripremio advokat Tihomir Vlaović.